What's Being Broken Will Not Be Fixed
Be careful what you wish for and all that...
Full disclosure: This one is going to have a more sobering tone. If you’re not in the right headspace for that, I totally get it. Skip it. Self care is important, and I’ve got something less topical and (hopefully) more inspirational in the pipeline. But this one is more “doomer brained” than what I’ve written recently. It’s not that I’m being fatalistic because I don’t think of humanity’s chances in those terms. Our species has an uncanny ability to survive that rivals many others. Nevertheless, some might find this topic more unsettling than my some of my other recent writing. Now’s your last chance to read something else.
Still with me? Alright, here’s the cold water: the things that are being broken now are not coming back. That’s a lot to take in and it means a lot of different things.
This started with a conversation with a coworker. I told them that in the damage incurred over the next four years by the current administration has almost no chance of being reversed. Think about it. By the end of this presidential term, it will be 2029. How long will it take to reverse four years of taking a chainsaw to the administrative state? Let’s be optimistic and say two decades. That would still be an incredibly fast turnaround, but I’ll allow it. That would bring us to 2049.
First off, we’re now talking about things situated in time alongside a super futuristic role playing game I used to play in the 1990s called Shadowrun. The game is still around and has moved forward in time just like the rest of us, but back then it was set in the 2050s. It seemed so impossibly distant then. Now I’m creating hypotheticals about restoring a gutted government by that time.
More importantly, the 2050s are the timeline some climate change models have for being over (and possibly well over) 2 degrees C of warming. Some models are more aggressive than this. A recent article suggests we may actually be a decade further into our climate journey than we thought, but I’ve decided to maintain a little optimism in an otherwise pessimistic essay.
To put it bluntly: there is not enough time to reforge the broken pieces of our government before the next stage of near-catastrophic climate change impacts are being felt and yet another climate change milestone is passed. These institutions — USAID, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, Department of Education, National Parks and the Forestry Service, Environmental Protection Agency, etc. — took decades to get working as well as they did. And I’m not even saying they worked particularly well in general. I’m just that even getting to the point we’re at currently has taken a long time. (Side note: that very short and non-encompassing list has one thing in common, which is the well being of the vulnerable or those that can’t speak for themselves. I just want to point out that some are happy to use their power to oppress instead of protect.)
So here we are at the apparent end of the American Empire. As I’ve often said: A lot of people lived under the rule of the Roman Empire, but only a few were there when it fell. I believe that we are bearing witness to the end of our current world order, and the place of the United Stated in it in particular. Depending on your perspective, that could be either not a moment too soon or frighteningly early and worthy of existential dread. Frankly I can see both sides of that debate. Had the United States not reached the heights it did in the way that it did, we might not be on the edge of the proverbial climate cliff. Conversely, I think a global effort will be necessary to stave off some of the effects. Given the dismantling of many government agencies mentioned above, the US will not be in a position to provide much support to that effort, let alone be a leader of it as many of us would prefer.
What happens now? Moreover, what does what comes after look like? Well, certainly those currently in charge would prefer some sort of techno-feudalism like I’ve outlined in a previous bit of writing. The state and capital are so intertwined that I’m sure they’d like to cut away the facade and just have companies provide both functions. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of that happens. People will seek the relative shelter and comfort of living in a city completely owned and run by a corporation in exchange for their labor and privacy. Arguably, that’s what most of us are doing already. And it’s hard to blame anyone for doing that. I’m trying to keep some sense of normalcy going for my family despite have no real idea how much longer this thing resembling “normal” can be maintained. I’m making that conscious trade, too.
But I’d rather not trade the flawed system we have now with the illusion of democracy for a totalitarian rule by billionaires and the politicians that court them. Something else will need to be built in place of those structures if possible, and outside of those structures if necessary.
I grew up watching Star Trek (I know, shocking); The Next Generation and Deep Space Nine in particular. There was a lot to like about those shows, but I came to really appreciate the post-scarcity economy where everything was provided for everyone that needed it. You gave back to society in what way befit your abilities and interests. Is that kind of society still possible for the future of humanity? I’d like to hope so. Science fiction is supposed to be speculative, whether hopeful of dystopian.
I brought up Rome earlier. We hear a lot about Rome, but very little of what was happening outside of it. History has a very state-centric view. And it makes sense. That’s who kept the records! They had the resources and desire to do so. But plenty of people lived outside of the rule of every empire ever known and we hear little about them. Either they didn’t keep records or they didn’t survive to be found. However, they lived the entirety of their lives outside of the state. And for those who would rather not partake of living in a Blade Runner/Cyberpunk/Shadowrun style corporate city, that could be a viable alternative.
Sufficed to say, the world that comes after this will look significantly different for a number of reasons. My main caution here is not to expect the United States to be a great contributor. It may remain in name, but only as a hollowed out shell and unable to provide any meaningful help to anyone except those that could already afford it anyway. The mechanisms that the US could use in the future to help people or enact meaningful change are the ones being broken apart right now.
The structures that we’ve become accustomed to are being dismantled in such a way that rebuilding them as they are will be nearly impossible task. The bright side of that, if there is one to be had, is that something new will have to be made. There won’t be any more of the “back to normal” crowd left because it will be obvious to everyone that normal is in the rear-view mirror. We will be the ones to decide what structures exist after.
I believe that we don't have the necessary 20 years (at minimum) to establish a decent effective government.
My hope lies with those who can and will detach themselves from the corporate controlled state.
So, I agree with a lot of what you think.
I don't mourn the loss of my country that much. I have come to believe that it was mostly illusion.
I mourn the loss of ecosystems and countless species of non-human life. Those we will not get back either.
In the story of Job his first family was not mourned at the end. His second family was celebrated - one of my many arguments with the Bible.
Some things are not replaceable.
Another similar life form may come into being, to be cherished for its uniqueness. But, for myself, that doesn't mitigate the loss of what we've destroyed and what will be lost before our earth begins to stabilize again, however long that will take.
Eric, Why so serious? : )
Where's your faith in the process of Life?
I could comment in a contrasting way to many of your points, but will leave it at this. I've lived in Sedona, Arizona, for the last nine years. I also lived here from 1988-1992, when it was an entirely different community. If you knew what the Forest Service (and I use the word "Service" most generously) has done to this place, you would not be so quick to defend them. From my perspective, they are rapists and fascists, pretending they own the land and the people and can control them both.
That's enough of that, though. I wouldn't want to put us in a bad mood.
Don't worry, bro.
Be happy. Everything will be alright in the end.
I promise.
P.